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06/11/2007 - Havre de Grace, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Suzann Pettersen waited two months for another chance. This time, she wouldn't let it get away.
The intense, long-hitting Norwegian won her first major Sunday by edging out Karrie Webb at the McDonald's LPGA Championship, atoning for her collapse at the first major of the season, the Kraft Nabisco Championship in April.
In that tournament, Pettersen gave away four shots on a three-hole stretch at the end of the final round, handing Morgan Pressel her first major instead.
Sunday, Pettersen made four birdies on the back nine, including a 12-foot putt at the 17th with Webb knocking on the door, and closed with a five-under 67 to win by a shot at Bulle Rock.
"Last time I was so close. To come here and win and feel the pressure coming down the stretch, it's just amazing to stand here and be by myself on top," said Pettersen, who finished at 14-under 274.
Pettersen needed a two-putt par from 30 feet at the 18th green to close it out. She nearly holed the first try, rolling it within tap-in range on the right side of the cup.
Then, she waited for playing partner and overnight leader Na On Min to putt out before finishing off her closing par.
"I was really happy I got it that close," Pettersen said of her 30-foot try on 18. "I'm really thrilled. It's been a great week."
Webb finished runner-up for the second year in a row after losing to Se Ri Pak in a playoff last June. Like Pettersen, she closed with a five-under 67 to end alone in second place at 13-under 275.
The 2001 champion, Webb made a 10-foot birdie putt at the 18th hole to pull within one shot of Pettersen, who had just finished up her birdie at the 17th.
She said the final round was nerve wracking and exciting all at once.
"That putt on the last at least gave Suzann a little bit to think about," said Webb.
Min, a rookie playing in her first major, rebounded from a bad front nine with four consecutive birdies from the 13th hole and finished in third place at 12- under 276. She had a 70 in the final round.
Lindsey Wright was another surprise after firing a final-round 66 Sunday to finish in fourth place at 10-under 278. She was a factor at the top of the leaderboard late into the day.
"It hasn't sunk in," Wright said of her surprising finish. "I'm so excited. It's a great confidence boost for me."
Angela Park (71) was fifth at nine-under 279, one shot ahead of Lorena Ochoa, Paula Creamer, Sophie Gustafson and Brittany Lincicome.
Annika Sorenstam had a 71 and finished nine shots off the lead at five-under 283. The three-time McDonald's LPGA winner was playing for just the second time since returning from a back injury.
Michelle Wie's troubles continued in the form of a final-round 79. Playing with an injured wrist that forced her controversial withdrawal last week, she finished at 21-over 309 -- in last place out of the 84 players who made the cut.
MORE TO FOLLOW.
<< Thompson claims first Nationwide win
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Thompson shot a one-under 70 on Sunday to
win the Rex Hospital Open, holding off a charging Bob Burns to claim his first
Nationwide Tour victory in wire-to-wire fashion.
Thompson finished at 16-under 268
<< Woody Austin wins St. Jude
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Woody Austin was so good, it didn't matter what
anyone else did.
The way he played the final round of the Stanford St. Jude Championship, no
one was beating him.
"That was a true round of golf. It was one of
<< Twins top Nats
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Bartlett was 3-for-5 and drove in a
pair of runs as Minnesota doubled up Washington, 6-3, to salvage the finale of
a three-game set at the Metrodome.
Torii Hunter finished 3-for-4 with an RBI and th
<< Royals rout Phillies
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Grudzielanek homered and finished with
five RBI, as the Kansas City Royals pounded the Philadelphia Phillies, 17-5,
in the rubber match of a three-game interleague set at Kauffman Stadium.
Tony Pena
Dynamo win 3rd straight as Crew remain winless in six >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A little over a week ago, Major League
Soccer's defending cup holder, Houston, looked like it was heading for a rough
stretch. The Dynamo were preparing for a three-games-in-eight-days stretch
after
Mets' activate Green >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets activated outfielder Shawn
Green from the 15-day disabled list following Sunday's 15-7 setback to the
Detroit Tigers.
Green has been out since suffering a chip fracture on the base o
Gordon reigns supreme at Pocono >>
Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve Letarte made the right calls and got
Jeff Gordon out front when the rains came to capture Sunday's rain-delayed
Pocono 500 at the Pocono Raceway. The No.24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
crossed
Glaus leads Blue Jays over Dodgers >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Glaus had three hits, including a pair
of solo homers, and scored three runs as the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the
Los Angeles Dodgers, 11-5.
John McDonald went 3-for-4 with two RBI and scored a pai
The 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite.
Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense.
Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively.
A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season.
Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back.
Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick.
And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below.
2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win
Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1
Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1
Donald Brown (IND) 5/1
Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1
Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1
Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1
Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1
Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1
Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1
Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1
Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1
Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1
Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1
Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1
Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1
Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1
Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1
LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1
Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1
Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1
Jason Smith (STL) 40/1
Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1
Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1
Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1
Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2
Pat White (MIA) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 9/1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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