Blue Devils take on Terps in Durham

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off their biggest win of the season, the 10th-ranked Duke Blue Devils return to Cameron Indoor Stadium, as they play host to the Maryland Terrapins in ACC action this afternoon.

Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils recorded a thrilling 85-84 win in Chapel Hill over arch rival North Carolina on Wednesday and in the process created a three-way tie atop the ACC standings with UNC and Florida State at 7-2. Usually a safe haven, Duke has dropped two of its last three games in Durham.

Mark Turgeon's first season in College Park has certainly produced its share of ups and downs. The Terrapins are five games over .500 overall at 14-9, but just 4-5 in conference play. Maryland has dropped five of its last seven games but does enter this contest off a 64-62 road win at Clemson.

Duke owns a 111-61 series advantage overall and has won the last four meetings. In addition, the Blue Devils have won four straight in Durham, with Maryland's last win at Duke coming in 2007.

The Terrapins lack a great deal of scoring punch at a meager 69.1 ppg this season, but ironically boast of the ACC's top scoring threat in guard Terrell Stoglin, who is averaging 22.0 ppg. Stoglin, who has a team-high 63 three- pointers to his credit, has scored in double figures in 22 of the 23 games this season, including reaching the 20-point mark 17 times. His backcourt mate Sean Mosley is a distant second in the scoring column at 10.4 ppg. James Padgett (9.0 ppg. 5.8 rpg) is the top option in the frontcourt.

The Terps led by 14 points with just under eight minutes left, but needed to hold off Clemson to earn a two-point win. Stoglin was once again unstoppable, netting a game-high 27 points. The Terps shot a impressive .489 from the floor, the second-best mark in ACC play this year. Mosley once again played Robin to Stoglin's Batman, finishing with 16 points.

Freshman Austin Rivers drilled a three-pointer and ended North Carolina's 31- game homecourt winning streak, shocking the Chapel Hill faithful in attendance. Rivers was certainly not intimidated in his first Duke/North Carolina clash, hitting six three-pointers and finishing with a game-high 29 points. Ryan Kelly and Seth Curry added 15 points apiece, while Mason Plumlee finished with eight points and 14 rebounds.

The Blue Devils bring a balanced offensive attack into their games, averaging a steady 80.0 ppg, on .480 shooting. The scoring is spread out with four players currently in double figures, led by Rivers' 15.1 ppg. Curry and Kelly provide perimeter depth and are tied for second at 12.7 ppg each. Mason Plumlee is the resident muscle in the paint at 11.5 points and 9.9 rebounds per game.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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